@andreassteno - Twitter Profile Analysis

Aaaaaaaaaaah 😱 https://t.co/RYVg6WveRd

If Omicron is as good news as some experts claim, then this pattern will likely be reversed over 2022/2023... And that is disinflationary ladies and gentlemen!

Close to a record-large spread between current oil price and the oil price delivered in a few years (backwardation) The risk of the spot price FALLING is usually larger than another increase, when the backwardation is this material. Rates + inflation down in case!

It is good news for the global economy in 12 months from now I guess.. (we will face negative surprises until then) But it could be a good idea to consider a risk parity strategy in China.. Be long BOTH bonds and equities.. https://t.co/CLq9wcTleS

Experts are surprised by new records in the virus spread, but isn't it textbook virology? 1) Transmitability goes up 2) Lethality goes down The question is if lethality times transmissibility will prove benign enough for this to be treated as just another endemic virus now

I simply lack the imagination to consider a 50 bp hike a feasible scenario, but maybe I am just too young.. What do the Boomer economists think? https://t.co/iinR0oqZkN

I joined @MacroAlf for a debate on the current bond market trends. Are we approaching peak hawkishness? We both tend to think so.. More (for free) in the link below.. Enjoy! https://t.co/SBbZ6bttFx

Prediction: Within 3 years from now, health authorities will admit that it was a failed strategy to pursue mass vaccinations of <40 year olds

The best and worst things to own during a drawdown of USD reserves/liquidity (QT): Best: USD and/or low credit risk USD duration De facto monopolies (Big-tech/Big-pharma) Worst: Small-caps (Russel 2000) USD duration in EM bonds We see moves in this direction again today

I was asked a few times on how much we test for Covid-19 in Denmark compared to elsewhere... The answer is this much.. (and no, it is not worth it)..

The spread between the green and the red line is ready to be "unleashed" when the Fed enacts in QT.. This is going to sugarcoat the process to a larger extent than in 2018/2019

Pretty much a meltdown a Russian equities today.. Peak Putin gas fears = Peak Russian equities?

I will be joining The Real Vision Daily Briefing tonight 10PM CET, 4PM ET hosted by @MacroAlf What is your main concern/topic of interest currently? Hit me..

Enjoying the last few days off before returning to action 🍾

There is a lot of noise about the treasury yields trend, at the end of the day it comes down to a simple factor, demographics 👇 ht @EPBResearch

I joined @MacroAlf for a debate on the current bond market trends. Are we approaching peak hawkishness? We both tend to think so.. More (for free) in the link below.. Enjoy! https://t.co/SBbZ6bttFx

Markets kick off the week deep in the red as the #US10Y rises above 1.8% for the first time since Jan 2020. Don't miss @MacroAlf & @AndreasSteno at 4PM ET on the Daily Briefing for a look at the latest happenings across markets. Questions 👉 https://t.co/CEGTinH4kv

@macroalf dropping truth in quality content. https://t.co/1DNuXHv2sT Five days ago I tweeted about the 3 levers 1. Fed QT details including pace of sales and rolldown (some already public rest during meetings) 2. Treasury issuance decisions regarding bills vs bonds QRA on 2/4

Do you miss the awesome Sunday macro pieces @AndreasSteno was putting out? Good news: the wait is over! Here is his macro comeback piece, an absolute must read. https://t.co/cloSpLSxNp

🔎 NFT volume share of various blockchains - JPM

We are witnessing an interesting rotation in forward P/Es: growth down, value up. In the meantime, inflation expectations are not breaking on the upside and the yield curve remains very flat - 2s10s in the US actually flattened 10 bps this week. Something has to give here.

A new (and special) article of The Macro Compass is out: @AndreasSteno comeback macro piece in a lively Q&A format with me! Alf, Andreas, an audio version too...are you saying... Yes. Our podcast is coming soon, this time for real! 👇 https://t.co/cloSpLSxNp

My comeback letter is out! My friend @MacroAlf has interviewed me about the cliff of rate of changes! Enjoy! https://t.co/TkIgoLjn5W

One for the financial history scrapbook. "Bidenflation" lol

🇺🇸 Lots of talk that the flat yield curve indicates that the business cycle will tank. But isn't it this time rather a signal that inflation in the longer-term will be lower? The real rate curve is no way near as flat as it has been in the past when nominals are here...

Linear regression of M2 YoY vs CPI YoY, last 40 years. ZERO correlation. Also, no correlation if one applies whatever time lag to inflation data. Money is a complicated topic: please stop butchering it and assuming M2 holds serious information value.

The mother of all regime changes.

The Fed Funds futures market is now pricing in 3.7 hikes by the Fed in 2022: 3 hikes for sure by September, and 70% chance of a fourth hike in December. If it gets much more aggressive than this, we are at serious risk of yield curve inversion in 5s30s for instance.

How come the various folks that always say the Fed will never tighten (never taper, never move rates, never go tight) are taken seriously? They have already been proven wrong by the initial taper & the accelerated taper. Can anything stop these folks? Or is it a 'religion'?

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